Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
